No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong

Something strange happened this afternoon. The press—ranging from the *New York Times* and *Washington Post* to CNN, *Wall Street Journal*, *USA Today*, and Axios—reported that the CDC had just announced that 73% of U.S. COVID-19 cases were now caused by the Omicron variant. Even top public health figures like Ashish Jha, Eric Topol, and Scott Gottlieb shared these numbers without question. But here’s the thing: it wasn’t true. What actually occurred was a glitch in an automated algorithm used by the CDC called the “Nowcast.” This tool is meant to estimate current variant proportions based on older genomic data. It’s not a direct measurement—it's a projection. And this time, the projection went wildly off track. The Nowcast isn’t a press release or a statement from CDC officials. It’s part of the agency’s online dashboard, and it updates weekly. The problem came when the algorithm misinterpreted recent data, leading to an absurdly high estimate of Omicron’s dominance. What the Nowcast claimed was that Omicron made up 73% of cases in the week ending December 18—but that number didn’t reflect current reality. Instead, it was a flawed extrapolation of data from two weeks prior. This error spread quickly. Within hours, major outlets picked up the story, and experts echoed the numbers without checking the source. But when you dig deeper, the numbers don’t add up. For instance, in Region 10 (Oregon, Washington, Idaho), the actual data showed zero Omicron prevalence in late November, yet the Nowcast claimed it had jumped to nearly 100% in just a few weeks. That doesn’t match what we know about Omicron’s growth rate. Omicron is indeed spreading fast, but nothing suggests it has already taken over the entire country. In fact, national case numbers have remained relatively flat, with only small increases in certain regions. If Omicron were truly dominant, we’d be seeing a much more dramatic rise in overall cases. So what does this mean? First, the CDC will likely issue a correction soon. Second, while the algorithm failed, the CDC itself isn’t at fault—it was an automated system that made a mistake. Third, the media missed the mark by not digging into the details before publishing the headline. But despite the confusion, Omicron is still a major concern. It’s growing rapidly, and it’s only a matter of time before it becomes the dominant strain nationwide. So, even though this story might be revised, the underlying threat remains real. In the meantime, stay informed, keep your guard up, and be cautious about what you read. The truth will come out—and when it does, it’ll be worth watching.

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