Who will dominate the LED lighting?

History often repeats itself in striking ways. A few years ago, most households used incandescent or energy-saving bulbs, but now these have largely been replaced by LED lighting. Will LED continue to dominate the market? Could the LED industry face disruption? And if so, who will be the disruptor? How can LED manufacturers adapt and rebuild their value chains? Any company can find its strongest competitor, but one opponent is impossible to beat—this is the power of a trend. Once a trend takes hold, it doesn’t develop linearly; instead, it builds up quietly until it bursts into an avalanche. Those unwilling to change will be swept away. Subversive innovation signals the future, and it’s this force that reshapes industries. Zhou Hongyi, Chairman and CEO of Qihoo 360, once said, “Subversive innovation is not just about technology—it's about the direction of the future.” **Disruptive Technology** **Graphene: The New Hope for Lighting?** If the 20th century was the age of silicon, then the 21st century may belong to graphene. Known as the "universal material," graphene is the thinnest and strongest nanomaterial in the world. Scientists are already exploring its potential in illumination. The National Graphene Institute at the University of Manchester has developed a new graphene-based bulb. This dimmable bulb features an LED filament coated with graphene, which improves conductivity, extends lifespan by 10%, and reduces energy consumption. It also promises to be more cost-effective than traditional LEDs. Though the graphene industry is still in its early stages, with supply chains not yet fully integrated, the potential for a global industrial revolution is real. If realized, it could shake up the lighting sector significantly. **OLED: A New Lighting Revolution?** From small displays to large screens, OLED technology is advancing rapidly. But can it challenge the dominance of LEDs? Dr. Peng Hui, a consultant at GSC Intellectual Property Department, believes OLEDs currently lag behind LEDs in efficiency and longevity. While they show promise, issues like stability, sealing, and high costs remain. Without major breakthroughs, OLEDs may struggle to gain widespread adoption in the near future. However, companies like Philips, Osram, LG, and Samsung are actively investing in the OLED market. Dr. Peng notes that only LG and Samsung have the capability to industrialize OLED technology. At the Asia-Europe Photonics Exhibition, Dr. Hou Minxian from Zhejiang Lighting Society suggested that OLEDs might soon become a major player. With mass production becoming more stable and features like ultra-thin design, uniform lighting, and flexibility, OLEDs are gaining traction. Once adopted, OLEDs could shift the lighting industry from manufacturing to home improvement. Though challenges remain, disruptive technologies often start with flaws but eventually outperform existing solutions due to their superior user experience. **Subverting the Business Model** **E-commerce: A Deep Transformation** With the rise of the "Internet Plus" movement, traditional business models are being redefined. In the lighting industry, this means a shift from physical retail to e-commerce. In 2014, online lighting sales reached $2.4 billion, accounting for 14.4% of total sales. By 2017, it's expected to surpass 30%, becoming the largest channel for lighting products. Smart lighting is also integrating with IoT, cloud computing, and big data, becoming a key part of smart homes and cities. Companies like Xiaomi and Alibaba are leading the way, focusing on user-centric experiences and new service models. As Guangzhou Tiantong Smart CEO Pan Jize predicts, the best lighting brands in three years will likely be internet companies. Whether through OEM partnerships or direct control over smart systems, the business model of the lighting industry is undergoing a massive transformation. **User Interaction: The New Force** In the industrial era, businesses operated based on a vertical "company-user" relationship. But the mobile internet has changed that, creating horizontal and long-tail interactions between companies and users. Tang Guoqing, Secretary General of the China Lighting Society, says that in the internet era, users can participate in product design, blurring the lines between industry and consumer. With 3D printing and smart tech, users may even become creators. This shift is moving the industry from B2B and B2C models to C2B, where users drive demand. As Zhou Hongyi noted, "Business model innovation makes expensive things cheap and free." **Conclusion: The Power of Ideas** What determines China’s future? Economist Zhang Weiying argues that ideas are powerful. Only a free exchange of ideas can lead to prosperity. The internet is reshaping business, shifting focus from products to people. In the age of disruption, the lighting industry faces constant threats—whether from new technologies or changing consumer expectations. To survive, companies must adopt a distributed strategy, invest in innovation, and continuously self-disrupt. The key is to stay ahead of the curve, always thinking about what users need and how to create better experiences. Ultimately, the future belongs to those who embrace change, think differently, and build around the user.

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